Republicans predict Senate ObamaCare repeal would pass House – The Hill

House Republicans predicted Tuesday that the House will quickly approve the new GOP ObamaCare bill if it can first pass the Senate.

Speaker Paul RyanPaul RyanRyan: Graham-Cassidy ‘best, last chance’ to repeal ObamaCareRyan: Americans want to see Trump talking with Dem leadersOvernight Finance: CBO to release limited analysis of ObamaCare repeal bill | DOJ investigates Equifax stock sales | House weighs tougher rules for banks dealing with North KoreaMORE (R-Wis.) and other GOP leaders say they are prepared to bring the legislation, sponsored by Sens. Lindsey GrahamLindsey Olin GrahamTop Louisiana health official rips Cassidy over ObamaCare repeal billSenate Dems hold floor talk-a-thon against latest ObamaCare repeal billOvernight Defense: Senate passes 0B defense bill | 3,000 US troops heading to Afghanistan | Two more Navy officials fired over ship collisionsMORE (R-S.C.) and Bill CassidyWilliam (Bill) Morgan CassidyTop Louisiana health official rips Cassidy over ObamaCare repeal billSenate Dems hold floor talk-a-thon against latest ObamaCare repeal billFinance to hold hearing on ObamaCare repeal billMORE (R-La.), to the House floor immediately, while rank-and-file lawmakers said they’d have little choice but to swallow whatever the Senate sends them.

“I believe it will pass,” said Rep. Daniel Webster (R-Fla.), whose “yes” vote helped push the House repeal bill over the finish line earlier this year.

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“If the Senate passes it, the House better get it done,” warned Rep. Jason Smith (R-Mo.), a member of Ryan’s leadership team.

“I’d give it about an 80 percent chance of passing the House if it clears the Senate,” added Rep. Scott DesJarlais (R-Tenn.), a physician and cancer survivor who is a member of the far-right House Freedom Caucus.

Senate Republicans are racing to reach an agreement and hold a vote on the bill before Sept. 30, when under a parliamentarian ruling they will no longer be able to use special “budget reconciliation” rules to prevent a Democratic filibuster on the measure.

GOP leadership aides said the House does not have to act before the end of the month. But the Senate’s fast-approaching deadline means there likely won’t be any time on the clock for the House to make tweaks to Graham-Cassidy and bounce it back over to the Senate.

There’s also no time for House and Senate negotiators to form a conference committee to iron out their differences.

“I doubt the House can do anything to modify the Senate bill. We will have to eat it,” said one moderate House Republican.

In May, the House passed a repeal and replace bill, the American Health Care Act (AHCA), on a narrow 217 to 213 vote, then took a victory lap in the Rose Garden with Trump. Since then, House GOP leaders and rank-and-file lawmakers have pointed fingers at their Senate counterparts for failing to do their part to gut ObamaCare, the central election promise that handed Republicans full control of government last November.

Given that dynamic, House Republicans would be under enormous political pressure — from their conservative base and the White House — to pass Graham-Cassidy if Senate Republicans managed to muster the 51 votes needed.

Whether Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnellAddison (Mitch) Mitchell McConnellSenate passes 0B defense billOvernight Health Care: New GOP ObamaCare repeal bill gains momentumOvernight Finance: CBO to release limited analysis of ObamaCare repeal bill | DOJ investigates Equifax stock sales | House weighs tougher rules for banks dealing with North KoreaMORE (R-Ky.) can keep his troops in line is a big question. The junior senator from Kentucky, former Trump presidential rival Rand PaulRandal (Rand) Howard PaulSenate Dems hold floor talk-a-thon against latest ObamaCare repeal billOvernight Defense: Senate passes 0B defense bill | 3,000 US troops heading to Afghanistan | Two more Navy officials fired over ship collisionsLawmakers grapple with warrantless wiretapping programMORE, is opposed to the legislation. That means two more GOP “no” votes would kill the health care repeal bill.

“I truly do not know if this can pass the Senate,” said Rep. Tom Reed (R-N.Y.), co-chair of the bipartisan Problems Solvers Caucus.

“Bottom line: I’ll believe it when I see it get out of the Senate,” said Reed, who acknowledged having concerns about the bill.

The legislation would repeal much of ObamaCare, and provide block grants to states for health care funding. Its proponents say this would give states more power and curtail a federal takeover of health care.

House GOP leaders informally discussed how they would handle Graham-Cassidy last week, but there’s “a lot of doubt about the Senate passing it,” one leadership source said.

In the House, GOP lawmakers across the political spectrum predicted they would have more breathing room this time around than they did for the May vote. Since that roll call, Republicans have won three special elections — in Montana, Georgia and South Carolina — adding a trio of reliable GOP votes. They lost Oversight Chairman Jason ChaffetzJason ChaffetzFive memorable moments from Hillary Clinton’s newest bookClinton says she mistook Chaffetz for Priebus at Trump’s inauguration Curtis wins GOP primary for House seat vacated by Jason ChaffetzMORE (R-Utah), who resigned on June 30 after backing the House repeal bill.

Many expect that the band of 30 conservative hard-liners known as the House Freedom Caucus will line up behind Graham-Cassidy. House Freedom Caucus Chairman Mark Meadows (R-N.C.) is publicly supportive and has had “numerous conversations” with Graham and other senators to ensure the final Senate language is something his conservative members can live with.

“I am optimistic that with the adoption of changes offered by key senators to the Graham-Cassidy bill there will be a path forward that gains the support of 218 House Republicans,” Meadows said in an interview.

“The senators are making sure that it lowers premiums and gives governors flexibility.”

In addition to the House Freedom Caucus, House GOP leaders will also need backing from a majority of the Tuesday Group, composed of roughly 50 centrist Republicans.

The most vocal objections, so far, are coming from this group of moderates. Outspoken Rep. Peter King (R-N.Y.) told the Washington Post he was opposed to the current version of Graham-Cassidy because it would cut Medicaid funding for New York more severely than the House bill. “It’s extremely damaging to New York,” he said.

Reed, a fellow New Yorker, said he would have a hard time backing the Senate bill unless the Faso-Collins amendment is added. That language, proposed by New York GOP Reps. John Faso and Chris Collins, had been worked into the House-passed repeal bill in order to win backing from moderate Empire State Republicans.

The amendment bars New York state from continuing its practice of forcing counties to pay for part of Medicaid, which in turn caused hikes in local property taxes.

“Without the Faso-Collins amendment, I’m very concerned about the proposal,” Reed told The Hill.

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